Primary Biliary Cirrhosis (cont.)

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Symptomatic phase

This phase is defined by a positive AMA, persistently abnormal liver blood tests, and the presence of symptoms of PBC. The duration of this phase among patients is also quite variable, lasting from 3 to 11 years.

Advanced phase

In this phase, symptomatic patients develop the complications of cirrhosis and progressive liver failure. The duration of this phase ranges from months to 2 years. These patients are at risk of dying unless they undergo successful liver transplantation.

What is the role of mathematical models in predicting the outcome (prognosis) in PBC?

Investigators at the Mayo Clinic performed statistical analyses of many variables (different types of data) among a large group of patients with PBC followed for many years. They used the results to derive a mathematical equation to calculate a so-called Mayo Risk Score (MRS). It turns out that the calculation is based on the results of three of the patient's blood tests (total bilirubin, albumin, and prothrombin time), the age of the patient, and the presence of enough fluid retention to swell the legs (edema) or abdomen (ascites). The Mayo Risk Score provides accurate information about the outcome (prognosis) of individual patients over time. It has been validated and is currently used to determine which patients with PBC need to be put on a liver transplant waiting list.

Physicians can rather easily calculate a Mayo Risk Score for their patients by going to the Internet site of the Mayo Clinic. There is no charge. The results provide an estimated survival for the patient over the next several years. Patients with an estimated life expectancy of 95% or less over one year meet the minimal listing criteria set by the United Network of Organ Sharing (UNOS) for liver transplant candidates.


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Primary Biliary Cirrhosis - Diagnosis Question: How was your primary biliary cirrhosis diagnosed?
Primary Biliary Cirrhosis - Symptoms Question: Please describe the symptoms of your primary biliary cirrhosis.
Primary Biliary Cirrhosis - Experience Question: Please describe your experience with PBC?

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